Updated January 20

Why Iran seeks nuclear weapons

January 20, 2009

Expert observers of Iran hang on the latest reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency of how many centrifuges are running, how far the country must go to build a bomb, the latest inflammatory remarks from President Ahmedinejad, speculation about a lame-duck Bush administration military strike, or the same from Olmert’s Israel.

Iran’s decision on nuclear weapons was made at least two decades ago. Despite its professed peaceful intentions, nobody in their right mind would disagree with the notion that Iran maximises its room for manoeuvre by all possible means, with nuclear arms or without.

Tehran doesn’t mind foreign suspicions at all; rather, its strategic interest is to encourage them, if only to achieve the effect of nuclear deterrence before possessing a nuclear device. Iran’s policy has created a virtual deterrent, and its policies across the board, from the mullahs’ point of view, amount to “constructive irresponsibility”. Iran wants us to spend time guessing its next step.

The current conflict in Gaza provides an example of Iran’s strategic ambitions. Iran has long used Hamas and Hezbollah as proxies in pursuit of its interests. At arm’s length, these organisations support Iran’s long-term goals: tie down Israel’s actions in the short term, and frustrate all efforts at Middle East peace. Israel’s 2006 failure in Lebanon, chasing down Hezbollah, only served to embolden the mullahs in Tehran. The assault on Gaza, while it may stop rocket attacks on civilians, could be expected to achieve much the same result.

There’s no plausible peaceful explanation for Iran’s uranium enrichment program: The fuel for its first nuclear reactor at Bushehr will be provided by Russia, with a requirement that spent fuel, full of weapons-usable plutonium, will be returned to Russia. Plans for future reactor construction are well in the distance. So the non-bomb uranium Iran has produced to date has no purpose besides that of a nuclear “breakout” option: kick out the inspectors, run the uranium through the centrifuges several more times, work on missiles and other delivery means, and finish up with a couple of bombs. In the view of Iranian leaders, this posture improves Iran’s strategic military perspective.

Put yourself in Ahmedinejad’s, or more important, Khamenei’s, position. How could you not pursue the nuclear option? A proud and ancient nation, subject to a long history of Western meddling, a Persian oasis in a multitude of Arabs and others, a combatant in many bloody wars, must have insecurities that far outweigh the prospects of UN Security Council resolutions and sanctions. The flood of diplomats into Tehran over the last several years only increased the value that Iran’s leaders, and much of its public, place on the virtual deterrent option that’s a stockpile of uranium sufficient for a bomb.

Consider the current environment and the history that informs Iran's leaders. Iran has declared the United States its principal strategic threat for three decades; indeed, this enmity has been a central organising principle for the government.

Flirtations with more normal relations with the US have been frequent, from the end of the Carter Administration through Iran-Contra to the present consideration of opening an American Interests Section in Tehran. But the government of Iran has been divided in important ways since the revolution, with many observers noting its conflicting signals to the major powers, simultaneously conciliatory and defiant. This behaviour only increased during the term of fiery Ahmadinejad.

According to the Federation of American Scientists, Israel has had nuclear-capable missiles since 1966 - perhaps the most significant political driver of Iran's national policy. But there are many others as well: Saddam Hussein's Iraq, using chemical weapons and pursuing nuclear ones, waged a punishing war against Iran for a decade after the 1979 revolution. The US has had a considerable military presence on Iran's land borders since 2001, a continuous and significant naval presence in the Gulf for longer, and it shot down an Iranian airliner during the Reagan administration.

In Kenneth Pollack's excellent book, The Persian Puzzle, he relates the tension among Iranian policymakers between transparency and concealment regarding the nuclear option.

Concealment was the policy for 20 years until the revelations of 2002. Once revealed, the public face of Iran’s policy changed to one of declarations of capability and denials of intent to build a nuclear weapon. On this question, Iran has many models to consider. Israel, as late as 2006, famously stated it would not be the first country to "introduce" nuclear weapons into the Middle East, a contrived ambiguity that has served its national interests, but leaves no confusion about its intent. Ironically, this Israeli policy is perhaps most consistent with Iran's current posture. The mere possibility of an Iranian nuclear weapon approximates its actual possession.

Another mature nuclear power in the neighbourhood, India, has pursued a similar approach to Iran’s. After its first nuclear test in 1974, India tried to persuade the world that the test was for peaceful purposes, with little success and few penalties. North Korea conducted a nuclear test in 2006, in the midst of the Six-Party talks on denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula, another virtual deterrent.

The model Iran may follow is China, which pursues a policy best described by Jeffrey Lewis and others as "minimum deterrence." Apart from fielding the largest army in the world, China maintains perhaps 200 nuclear weapons and declares a no-first-use policy. China enjoys a level of respect and consideration Iran's leaders have never enjoyed, but to which they logically aspire.

Let’s go back to the box in which Iran’s policymakers have placed themselves. After at least two decades, Iran got caught, publicly, in 2002, and had to submit to inspections of items never declared to the IAEA. Libya renounced its nuclear program around the same time. If you’re the Supreme Leader in Iran, what do you do? You pretend to co-operate with inspectors, work your Non-Aligned Movement allies in the UN system and slow-roll the slow-response mechanisms of the UN - all the while not compromising the strategic decision made decades ago. This is predictable, not radical behaviour. Iran can always hang opposition to its actions from the US and others on outsiders and “Zionist tendencies,” and pin IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei’s technical statements on the fact that he’s an Egyptian, and therefore suspect. (Nobel Peace Prize winner ElBaradei must have the patience of Job.)

So what’s to be done? The only way out of this mess is more of the same: call a high-level Middle East peace conference; think creatively about the kind of no-first-use nuclear policies that have served China well; include Israel while protecting its strategic interests; find ways to guarantee Israeli and Iranian borders; and, most important, focus on nuclear issues before it's too late.

No one can doubt the commitment of the US to Israel’s security, nor should anyone question the value of a prospective region-wide commitment to security behind currently-agreed borders. Israel might even rethink its own nuclear posture in light of such developments.

Iran would likely participate in any regional conference devoted to Middle East peace. Such a meeting would mark its undeniable influence in the region and perhaps mitigate the toxic relations existing with the US since 1979. It might just reduce the nuclear impulses that Iran cultivates as a counteraction to US and Israeli military power, as well as those they may harbor in a long-range analysis of a nuclear Turkey or Saudi Arabia. Why not? Absent an acceptable, overarching alternative, accepting Iran’s ambiguous nuclear power may all we’re left with.

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updated January 10


Comet Lulin on January 11, 2009. Credit: Gregg Ruppel

Comet Lulin is On the Way!

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A new comet is swinging around the sun, and soon it will be more visible to stargazers, perhaps even with the naked eye. Both professional and amateur astronomers have been tracking this unusual comet, named Comet Lulin. Thanks to amateur astronomer Gregg Ruppel, who lives in the St. Louis, Missouri area for sharing images he has acquired of Comet Lulin. Gregg took the image above on January 11, 2009. The most interesting characteristic of this comet is its orbit. Lulin is actually moving in the opposite direction as the planets, so its apparent velocity will be quite fast. Estimates are it will be moving about 5 degrees a day across the sky, so when viewed with a telescope or binoculars, you may be able to see the comet's apparent motion against the background stars. This is quite unusual! Today, January 14, the comet is at perihelion, closest to the sun. As it moves to its closest approach to Earth on February 24, Lulin is expected to brighten to naked-eye visibility in rural areas, (at best about magnitude 5 or 6) and will be observable low in the sky in an east-southeast direction before dawn.

The comet will pass 0.41 Astronomical Units from earth at its closest distance to Earth, about 14.5 times the distance between the Earth and the Moon. It has a parabolic trajectory, which means it may have never come this way before –this may be its first visit to the inner solar system

Lulin was jointly discovered by Asian astronomers in July of 2007. Quanzhi Ye from China first saw the comet on images obtained by Chi-Sheng Lin from Taiwan, at the Lu-lin Observatory.

The discovery of Comet Lulin (also known as C/2227 2007 N3) was part of the Lulin Sky Survey project to explore the various populations of small bodies in the solar system, especially objects that could be a hazard to the Earth.

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new date added:

February 24, 2009 - comet Lulin closetst approach to Earth

updated january 20

Sen. Ted Kennedy collapses at inaugural lunch

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Sen. Ted Kennedy, D-Massachusetts, collapsed Tuesday afternoon during a luncheon held for President Barack Obama in the Capitol's Statuary Hall.

Paramedics were called to the scene at 2:35 p.m. ET.

Kennedy, who appeared to be suffering from a seizure, was transported to a hospital.

"Senator Kennedy had a seizure" which "lasted a while," a Republican House member told CNN.

The member said Kennedy was still experiencing seizures when he was put in a wheelchair and taken out through the Rayburn room, located to the side of Statuary Hall.

Kennedy, 76, was first elected to the Senate in 1962.

The source did not know whether President Obama saw it happening because "there was still a lot of talking" and the program was still going on - the incident happened at the end of lunch.

This source was sitting at table in front of Kennedy and said Kennedy was sitting with former Vice President Walter Mondale and Senator Daniel Inouye.

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Putin warns of 'big expectations' of Obama

DRESDEN, Germany (AFP) - - Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said on Saturday he had noted "positive signals" about US president-elect Barack Obama but cautioned against "big expectations."

"We have watched an election campaign with great attention and we have heard and seen the positive signals which have been directed at us," Putin told German newspaper editors and journalists in Dresden, Germany.

He singled out Obama's stance on the US missile defence plan in Europe and US apparent readiness to wait on a NATO membership for countries like Georgia and Ukraine, which Russia considers its sphere of influence.

"We have heard and are fully in agreement that we have a lot in common when it comes to the solution of problems related to limiting the arms race," he said.

"We have a lot of common problems that we can really only jointly solve. The same goes for the problems in the Middle East, with Iran, the problems of non-proliferation in general."

But he also warned of the danger of raising expectations too high.

"I am deeply convinced that the biggest disappointments are born out of big expectations," he added.

He refrained from making any promises or predictions, saying Russia would be waiting for the pledges Obama had made during his campaign to be be realized.

"One needs to see what will happen in practice," Putin said. "We will see when we get there," he said.

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updated January 20-21

Pakistan border clash 'kills 60'

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More than 60 militants have been killed in fighting between government troops and militants in north-western Pakistan, officials say.

India test-fires supersonic cruise missile

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New Delhi (AFP) Jan 20, 2009
India's military Tuesday tested a surface-to-surface version of the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile which it had developed jointly with Russia, a defence ministry spokesman said.
The missile was fired from the Pokhran range in the western desert state of Rajasthan, bordering Pakistan, that was also the site of India's nuclear tests in 1998.

The official said the test was "routine," but it comes amid heightened tensions between India and Pakistan following the Mumbai militant attacks that New Delhi says were directed from Pakistani soil.

The BrahMos has a range of 290 kilometres (180 miles) and can carry a 300-kilogram (660 pounds) conventional warhead.

The eight-metre (26-foot) missile weighs about three metric tonnes and can be launched from land, ships, submarines or aircraft, travelling at a speed of up to Mach 2.8.

A version of the BrahMos is already used by the Indian navy.

First tested in June 2001, the missile is named after India's Brahmaputra River and Russia's Moskva River.

updated flight 522 crash on the timeline for January 21, 2009

Today on National Geographic Channel:

January 21, 2009

WEDNESDAY 21 JANUARY

Air Crash Investigation: Ghost Plane

On 14 August, 2005 shortly after take off from Cyprus, the flight crew of Helios Airways Flight 522 reports that an alarm is sounding in the cockpit. Suddenly the plane goes silent. Repeated calls from air traffic control go unanswered as the plane gets closer and closer to the city of Athens. Two fighter jets from the Greek military intercept the aircraft, concerned that Flight 522 could be a victim of a hijacking or terrorist plot. As the plane maintains a holding pattern in Athens airspace, a fighter pilot sees someone moving in the cockpit – but gets no response to repeated radio calls. Then, after almost three hours in the air, Helios Flight 522 runs out of fuel and crashes in the mountains. All 121 people on board are killed. What happened to the captain and co-pilot? Who was flying the plane? Tissue samples from the crash site and a weak mayday call on the cockpit voice recorder reveal that one of the flight attendants was in the cockpit when the plane went down. A key panel is also recovered, which points investigators to a small pressurization switch, which was not in the proper setting. As the plane climbed, oxygen seeped out of the aircraft, until everyone on board passed out. A report issued fifteen months after the crash sheds light on the worst crash in Greek aviation history.

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updated January 21

Nuclear test veterans launch case

Veterans involved in British nuclear tests in the South Pacific are to launch a legal bid against the government at the High Court later.

Ex-servicemen want compensation for illnesses they claim are the result of exposure to radiation in the 1950s.

But MoD lawyers will try to derail their claims before a full hearing, by arguing the tests happened too long ago for compensation to be considered.

The MoD says it recognises the troops' "vital role" in British nuclear tests.

At the height of the Cold War in the 1950s, Britain carried out a series of nuclear weapons tests in mainland Australia, the Montebello islands off the west Australian coast and on Christmas Island, in the South Pacific.

Veterans who served in the Army, Royal Navy and Air Force, as well as personnel from New Zealand and Fiji, were involved in the tests.

They say there were not properly protected from the blasts and did not know the possible consequences.

Many blame ill health, including cancers, skin defects, fertility problems and reduced life expectancy, on radiation exposure.

The High Court hearing to assess whether the claims are barred by the Limitation Act 1980 begins on Wednesday and may take two weeks.

Solicitors representing the veterans say if a compensation hearing can go ahead, the MoD could face claims from up to 1,000 individuals, potentially costing millions of pounds.

Douglas Hern, of the British Nuclear Test Veterans Association, said the serving troops had been "part of an experiment".

"We were human guinea pigs. We are the frontline heroes from the Cold War. There was no-one closer to it than us," he said.

He blames radiation exposure for causing his diabetes. He also believes that the death of his daughter from cancer at the age of 13 had a hereditary link to what he calls the "genetic confusion" in his own body.

An MoD spokesman said: "The UK government recognises the vital contribution service personnel played in the UK's nuclear tests during the 1950s and understands its obligation to veterans.

"When compensation claims are received they are considered on the basis of whether or not the Ministry of Defence has a legal liability to pay compensation.

"Where there is a proven legal liability, compensation is paid. There is a case ongoing and therefore it would be inappropriate to comment further."

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updated January 20

Sources: Caroline Kennedy withdraws name for Senate seat

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Vice President Cheney in a wheelchair during inauguration ceremony

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Ironically, it was potentially between Obama and Cheney to be todays US President. The latter without such an inauguration.

updated January 21, the expected 'Nagasaki echo':


Sasebo holds nuclear leak drill without U.S.

NAGASAKI (Kyodo) The city of Sasebo, Nagasaki Prefecture, conducted its seventh drill to deal with a possible radioactive leak from a U.S. submarine Wednesday, but U.S. forces declined to take part, as in previous drills. About 530 people, including... ...full story at Japan Times

from Japan Times on Wed, Jan 21 2009

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and:

A-bomb survivors expect Obama to work for nuclear-free world

HIROSHIMA —
Survivors of the 1945 U.S. atomic bombings on Hiroshima and Nagasaki expressed hope Wednesday that new U.S. President Barack Obama will work to abolish nuclear weapons as he vowed to lessen the nuclear threat in his inauguration speech. Takashi Morita, an 84-year-old survivor of the Hiroshima bombing who is now visiting Hiroshima from Brazil, said that Obama’s ‘‘perception of nuclear weapons is different from past presidents...I think he will be able to do something.’’

Former Nagasaki University president Hideo Tsuchiyama, 83, who is also a survivor, said, ‘‘There has been no other person (before Obama) who laid out the idea of seeking a nuclear-weapons-free world in the presidential election, and I feel his eagerness. I want him to realize it step-by-step by involving other countries.’’ He also said that he would like to carefully watch whether Obama can suppress possible resistance from the arms industry and government officials with different opinions in trying to realize the pledge. Sakue Shimohira, a 74-year-old survivor of the Nagasaki atomic bombing, said that she hopes to meet Obama ‘‘to directly tell him the feelings of the A-bomb victims.’’

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full article of Nagasaki nuclear drill as expected Nagasaki echo:

Thursday, Jan. 22, 2009

Sasebo holds nuclear leak drill without U.S.
NAGASAKI (Kyodo) The city of Sasebo, Nagasaki Prefecture, conducted its seventh drill to deal with a possible radioactive leak from a U.S. submarine Wednesday, but U.S. forces declined to take part, as in previous drills.

About 530 people, including police officers, Self-Defense Forces members and 30 local residents, participated in the drill conducted under the scenario of a radiation from a nuclear-powered U.S. Navy submarine at Sasebo's U.S. naval base reached a level requiring the area's evacuation.

Sasebo Mayor Norio Tomonaga asked the U.S. Navy last October to take part in the drill, but the U.S. forces declined, saying any radiation leak would be contained within the base, so an evacuation of local residents would be unnecessary.

This year's drill comes amid growing concern about radioactive leaks from U.S. submarines. Last year, the submarine USS Houston was found to have leaked water containing trace amounts of radiation during visits to three Japanese ports, including Sasebo.

Fire at Yokota base
Kyodo News
A fire that broke out Tuesday evening at the U.S. Yokota Air Base in western Tokyo continued to smolder Wednesday morning, after gutting 3,700 sq. meters of a Defense Department accounting service office built in 1948.

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Fire breaks out at U.S. Yokota Air Base
Wednesday 21st January, 06:00 AM JST

TOKYO —
A fire broke out Tuesday evening at the U.S. Yokota Air Base in western Tokyo, but there were no immediate reports of injuries, the base said. Japanese and U.S. fire authorities worked to extinguish the fire, which broke out around 6:30 p.m., and it was put out around 11 p.m., according to the Japanese Defense Ministry and the Yokota base.

The fire occurred in a one-story building built in 1948 that serves as an accounting service office at the base. It was apparently empty at the time as the fire occurred after business hours, the base’s public affairs office said. The cause of fire has yet to be determined, but a public affairs official on the base denied that it was in any way linked to terrorism. The Yokota base, which straddles the city of Fussa and five other Tokyo municipalities, is home to the United States Forces Japan. It has a 3,352-meter runway and about 5,000 U.S. military personnel, and 5,000 others including relatives of the military personnel live on the base.

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this echo is 'in the face'

Wednesday, Jan. 21, 2009


IAEA starts check of nuclear plant
TSURUGA, Fukui Pref. (Kyodo) An International Atomic Energy Agency team began safety assessments Tuesday at Fukui Prefecture's Mihama nuclear power plant, where a fatal accident occurred in 2004.

The IAEA team consisting of 13 experts from 12 countries, including the United States and some European countries, will conduct safety checks until Feb. 5 in nine fields, including operations, maintenance and radiation protection, and is scheduled to compile a report in six months.

Kansai Electric Power Co. had asked the Vienna-based U.N. nuclear watchdog, via the government, for a safety review of the measures it mapped out to prevent another accident.

In August 2004, superheated steam from a ruptured corroded pipe at the No. 3 nuclear reactor at the Mihama plant scalded four workers to death.

It is the fifth IAEA safety assessment of a Japanese nuclear plant at the request of the operator.

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updated January 10, 2009 Deep Impact: YELLOWSTONE, just like Deep Impact fly by. see timeline Q4 2008 end of year

Saturday 10th January 2009
Yellowstone Volcano, USA
The continuing earthquake swarm under Yellowstone volcano has migrated NNE. In the past 24 hours there have been 7 earthquakes larger than magnitude 2.5, centered at a location 14 km NNE of Yellowstone lake. The largest earthquake had a magnitude of 3.3. There have been about 900 earthquakes at the volcano since December 26th. This is the largest earthquake swarm in 20 years at Yellowstone. There are no other signs of unrest at the volcano.

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